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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.

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A yes for jobs, a yes for economic opportunity, a yes to support our community,” the narrator says during the commercial. “A new casino would have a positive impact on our county, and we have the power to make sure it lands here, where our community can benefit.”

There’s also opposition to a casino in Allen County. Last year, a group of anonymous business owners, residents, and faith leaders assembled to launch Save Fort Wayne. The political action group says a casino “creates a net loss” by increasing addiction and crime.

The group’s website features an interactive slot machine where the spin always lands on an alleged negative consequence such as “addiction,” “bankruptcies,” “divorces,” “mental health issues,” “fatal accidents,” “child neglect,” “human trafficking,” and “poverty.”

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The group highlighted potential risks posed by Google’s organic search features beyond paid advertising, which include autocomplete and suggested queries. 

Using data collected primarily through Chrome’s incognito mode to exclude personalised search histories, the KVA identified several autocomplete and pre-fill search queries that directly suggested illegal gambling platforms to users.

Examples included phrases like “online casino zonder Cruks” (online casino without CRUKS, the Dutch self-exclusion registry for problem gamblers) and “beste online casino buitenland” (best online casino abroad).