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I have lost money that was going to be used for my kids’ Christmas presents,” said one respondent. “It led to stress with my wife after having to borrow from her parents to make up that money.”
“I have lost money that was going to be used for my kids’ Christmas presents,” one respondent disclosed. “It led to stress with my wife after having to borrow from her parents to make up that money.”
Another bettor noted that gambling debts fractured personal relationships: “Sports betting ruined my six years of friendship because I couldn’t pay back the borrowed loan from my friend. He stopped talking to me.”
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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
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For free-to-play, that process can begin before the customer has committed money. “It’s about building muscle memory, providing achievable incentives to players and gamification,” Wilson explains. By lowering the barrier to participation, a free-to-play game can provide an accessible first interaction with an operator, while repeated play builds familiarity and creates a reason to return.
The format, however, cannot simply be copied and pasted from one market to the next. “We’ve found that the more localised the offering, the better,” Wilson says. “We’re talking about building anything from sumo wrestling to Love Island, as well as the headline sports. Ice cage fighting has been a popular one in a certain market for us.”
It is an eclectic list, but that’s kind of the point. Relevance can mean a global sporting event in one market and a far more niche (see ice cage fighting) obsession in another. Splash Tech’s job is to find the experience that fits the audience, rather than expecting the audience to fit the product.