Desert Drag

What is Desert Drag?

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

How to play Desert Drag

In July last year, Veikkaus iGaming EVP Jarkko Nordlund told iGB: “The competition will be fierce when the market opens, so we must be very competitive. Our aim is to challenge the mentality of our current position, so we need to secure market leadership.” 

According to its interim report for the first half of 2026, released this week, Veikkaus reported a 1% yearly increase in sales revenue of €471.3 million ($546.8 million).

Operating profit rose to €227.7 million, up from €220.6 million, while profit for the period reached €234.2 million, compared to €229.6 million a year earlier. 

About Desert Drag

“Considering that the regulated market has only been in place for just over two years, its implementation has been very positive,” she declares.

“Looking back over the past two years, the regulation has achieved its primary objective: creating a safer and more transparent market. It has established common standards for all licensed operators, particularly around KYC, AML and responsible gaming, ensuring that customers receive a more consistent experience regardless of the platform they choose.”

Atucha praises the regulation and the regulators themselves for making entry into the market easy, as well as allowing them to be competitive against illegal operators. But the market hasn’t been without its challenges.