Christmas Morning

How to play Christmas Morning

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

Besides revenue collection, another concern is legal and economic. Companies have paid over BRL2.5 billion for licences since the sector’s regulation. Certainly, the end of the activity would lead to litigation to recover the amounts paid and compensation for investments made. Furthermore, the revenue from betting is already included in the Annual Budget Law and the Budget Guidelines Law, which define the priorities for federal government spending.

How to play Christmas Morning

Convened by Texas State Senator Bryan Hughes, the hearing in the Senate Committee on State Affairs examined the relationship between federally regulated derivatives markets and state-prohibited gambling. Research from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming in April found that 43% of activity from sports event contracts came from two states, Texas and California. A separate breakout of Texas activity alone is not publicly available.

At Tuesday’s hearing, AGA Vice President Tres York testified before the committee alongside Robert DeNault, head of enforcement and legal counsel at Kalshi. The AGA, one of the nation’s most strident critics of prediction markets, argued that an event contract on the Cowboys to beat the Giants does not differ fundamentally from the same wager placed at a sportsbook.

As with California, sports wagering is illegal in Texas. Greg Abbott, a three-term governor, is up for re-election in November, along with Dan Patrick, his lieutenant governor. Patrick, who vehemently opposes sports betting, also serves as president of the Texas Senate in his current role. Several attempts to legalise sports wagering since the 2018 PASPA decision have been foiled under Patrick’s leadership.

How to play Christmas Morning

Two years later, Buffett again targeted the “gamblification” of financial markets in his annual shareholder letter.

“Markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants,” Buffett wrote, noting that extreme volatility makes identifying sound, long-term investments vastly more difficult.

“One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street–to use the term in its figurative sense–would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed–not by everyone but always by someone,” Buffett warned.