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About Fish Tales Double Catch
The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.
The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.
“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
About Fish Tales Double Catch
The Las Vegas Athletics announced a multi-year partnership with Circa Resort & Casino and Circa Sports on Thursday. The MLB franchise is set to move from Oakland ahead of the 2028 season to a new $2 billion stadium on the Las Vegas Strip.
Circa was named the club’s first Founding Partner and an Official Resort and Sportsbook of the Las Vegas Athletics and Las Vegas Athletics Ballpark.
“Derek Stevens and the Circa team have been great partners to the A’s, supporting the Club in West Sacramento during our time there, and we’re excited to build on that relationship,” said Marc Badain, president of the Athletics. “As we look toward the opening of the A’s ballpark in Las Vegas, having Circa as our first Founding Partner is an important step in bringing our vision for a uniquely Las Vegas experience to life.”
