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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
How to play Mystery Joker
Since joining the Ministry of Finance in 2024, he has been directly involved in implementing Brazil’s betting regulatory framework. His work has focused particularly on monitoring authorised operators, combatting the illegal market and strengthening controls to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism, as well as coordinating enforcement actions with other government agencies and private sector stakeholders.
“Fabio’s appointment brings an important South American perspective to the IAGR board of trustees at a time when regulators worldwide are facing similar transnational challenges,” said IAGR President Ben Haden.
“Brazil has undergone an ambitious regulatory transformation in an extraordinarily short period, and his experience at the heart of this process will provide valuable insights to the regulators within our global community.”
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Post-World Cup, Kambi is now working to offer more shots-on-target options before matches and additional automated intervals in-play, creating further betting opportunities as games unfold.
“Giving bettors more ways to personalise their wagers around the players and moments they care about was a big takeaway from the tournament and one which continues to inform Kambi’s development of cutting-edge sports betting products,” Lamb says.
Kambi is now rolling out AI trading across other sports, including basketball, ice hockey and American football. Its longer-term ambition extends beyond automating established processes to using the technology to create products that could not previously be delivered at scale.